From the moment the Federal Reserve announced that it would slash interest rates back in January of ‘08, investors began to get the jitters, and the “R” word was being spoken in hushed tones, flushed–so to speak–with the sort of shame that so typifies our other topic in this piece–namely, poo. How is a recession related to poo?
Well, let me start by saying it’s not just any poo, but particularly diarrhea.
It all started with an innocent search of “hemorrhoids” on Google Trends, which showed that there was a rather curious trend in people searching for “hemorrhoids” starting in early 2008.
- “hemorrhoids” and “diarrhea” (United States only)
As you can see, after years of rather stable “hemorrhoids” searching, there was a marked dip in searches from about January to March. I believe this is indicative of the transition many people experienced in that period when they went from being relatively constipated, to having anxiety and/or junk food-induced diarrhea. So, in that period of transition, many of them experienced a short period of relative comfort, before the diarrhea had time to occur often enough to become a major irritant to their hemorrhoids.
Apparently, some people saw the writing on the wall (maybe even a bathroom wall on Wall Street). And they must have known that their backsides (and by extension, our economy) were heading for deep trouble, because enough of them searched for relief in the way of “preperation h” to show up as a distinct spike in May and June of 2008 on Google Trends:
"preparation h" and "anal cream" (global searches)
Truly those people were ahead of the curve and may represent the wealthier, more informed investors who also, incidentally preferred top brand products. A more generic search for “anal cream” did not spike until well after the economic damage had been done. So, those people were either tougher in enduring their pain, or they were simply out of the loop in financial matters, but due to their 401(k)’s, mortgage problems, or job prospects, their butts are in for some hurting now, too. And in addition to their presumed lesser financial means, and the fact that after the crash they of course want to spend less, and that this particular trend was global, they therefore searched for the more generic “anal cream” term, as depicted above.
When September rolled around, the proverbial shit may have hit the fan, but the actual stuff was hitting the sidewalls and rims of numerous toilet bowls all across the “ownership society”. “Scared shitless” is a more apt descriptor than “shitting bricks” when used to convey fear. Here is the chart for the presumably anxious searches for “stock market”:
- “stock market” (US searches only)
And indeed, people should be scared in just that sort of way, having been convinced by their employers to ante up in a game of chance, with bigger players having much deeper pockets. Their combined contributions to such things as 401(k)’s drives up the pot in speculative markets, and when the house of cards tumbles, as it is bound to do every generation or so, and rather unexpectedly, then it is only the players with deep pockets left in the game. And it just so happens that they wrote the rules in the first place. Buy cheap, they say. And they sure will now, thank you very much.
These graphic illustrations, I believe, depict just one of the complex feedback mechanisms in the marketplace of valuation. The market can move our bowels. But it, in turn, is moved by our emotional state.
Unbridled capitalism, in pursuit of resources and markets, inevitably gives rise to a military-industrial complex. And it runs great on guns and oil, so long as no one says “BOO!”.
Perhaps now, we may see the difference between “making a living” and “making a killing”, and make more appropriate valuations of the two.
By the way, if you are suffering from hemorrhoids and diarrhea as a result of anxiousness, try 30 to 40 minutes of exercise each day to reduce stress and calm your overactive fight/flight mechanism. Also, avoid caffeine and other stimulants, which may cause you to poop more. And be sure to get enough sleep and eat healthy. It’s worth spending an extra dollar or two for healthier food rather than junk. And don’t look at the news so much. And invest more in your family and loved ones, and not so much in speculative markets. The return is much more rewarding and reliable.
